ボケボケと週末を過ごしていますが、少し遅れてのご紹介で、来年2010年の我が阪神タイガースのシーズンロゴマークとチームスローガンが11月20日に阪神タイガースのホームページ上で発表されています。チームスローガンは今年と同じく2年連続で Focus on this play, this moment!! となっています。その前の Be the Best For the Fans も3-4年使い回した記憶がありますから、スローガンの方はもう少し続けるのかもしれません。ロゴの方はその年が入っていますので、使い続けるわけにもいかず、以下の通りです。
最後の2枚のグラフは金融政策と財政政策に関するものです。まず、日米欧の中央銀行のバランスシートの拡大が p.22 のグラフから見て取れます。といっても、日本はそうでもありません。グラフのタイトルも、"Central bank balance sheets have expanded strongly in the United States and the euro area" となっています。昨日から金融政策決定会合を開催していた日銀は相変わらず無策のまま会合を終了しました。来春から神戸大学の宮尾教授が加わりますので、このまま無策を続けるんではなく、デフレ下の金融政策に新たな試みが導入されることを、祈るような気持ちで私は見守っています。
この10月末から11月初めにかけて、いくつかのシンクタンクや金融機関などから年末のボーナス予想が発表されています。まず、この今夏の1人当たりボーナス支給額について、GDP統計や日銀短観などでチェックしているシンクタンクなどのリポートから下の表を取りまとめました。証券会社などの金融機関では顧客向けに出しているニューズレターでクローズに公表する形式の機関もありますし、私もメールなんかに添付してもらっているリポートや ID とパスワードの必要なサイトもあったりするんですが、いつもの通り、ネットに pdf ファイルなどでオープンに公表している機関に限って取り上げています。なお、公務員とあるのは、みずほ総研と第一生命経済研については国家公務員と地方公務員の平均なんですが、日本総研と三菱UFJリサーチ＆コンサルティングのリポートには平均がなく、地方公務員の計数を取ってあります。ヘッドラインは私の趣味でリポートから特徴的な文言を選択しました。なお、詳細な情報にご興味ある方は左側の機関名にリンクを張ってあります。リンクが切れていなければ pdf 形式のリポートがダウンロード出来ると思います。"pdf" が何のことか分からない人は諦めるしかないんですが、もしも、このブログの管理人を信頼しているんであれば、あくまで自己責任でクリックしてみましょう。本人が知らないうちに Acrobat Reader がインストールされてあって、別画面が開いてリポートが読めるかもしれません。
2009 Leaders' Declaration "Sustaining Growth, Connecting the Region"
THE 17th APEC ECONOMIC LEADERS' MEETING Singapore 14 - 15 November 2009
“SUSTAINING GROWTH, CONNECTING THE REGION"
We, the Leaders of APEC, gathered in Singapore and marked twenty years of cooperation in promoting economic growth and prosperity for our people. In line with new trends and emerging challenges, our agenda has grown in breadth, depth, and complexity. But our common goal remains the same – to support growth and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region, through free and open trade and investment, as embedded in the Bogor Goals.
A year ago, as the world descended into an economic crisis unprecedented in severity since the Great Depression, we resolved that we would aim to overcome the crisis within eighteen months. Today, our robust policy responses have helped to set the stage for recovery. But economic recovery is not yet on a solid footing. Our commitments to reject protectionism and keep our markets open and free have enabled trade to be part of the solution rather than the problem. We will maintain our economic stimulus policies until a durable economic recovery has clearly taken hold.
We will work together to strengthen the momentum towards strong, sustainable and balanced global economic growth, as set out at the recent G-20 Summit in Pittsburgh.
Looking beyond supporting the recovery, we recognise the necessity to develop a new growth paradigm for the changed post-crisis landscape, and an expanded trade and investment agenda that will strengthen regional economic integration (REI) in the Asia-Pacific region. We cannot go back to “growth as usual". We will put in place next year a comprehensive long-term growth strategy that supports more balanced growth within and across economies, achieves greater inclusiveness in our societies, sustains our environment, and which seeks to raise our growth potential through innovation and a knowledge-based economy.
Supporting Balanced Growth
We support the goals of the G-20 Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth. We join in their commitment to:
Work together to ensure that our macroeconomic, regulatory and structural policies are collectively consistent with more sustainable and balanced trajectories of growth;
Promote current account sustainability and open trade and investment to advance global prosperity and growth sustainability;
Undertake macro prudential and regulatory policies to help prevent credit and asset price cycles from becoming forces of destabilisation; and
Promote development and poverty reduction as part of the rebalancing of global growth.
We look forward to a progress report from Finance Ministers next year on their efforts to achieve stronger, more balanced and sustained growth in the Asia-Pacific region.
Structural reform will be critical to strengthening long-term potential output growth and narrowing the development gap between economies, by improving economic flexibility, fostering private demand, and developing financial markets. We agree to reenergise APEC's work on structural reform, building on the Leaders' Agenda to Implement Structural Reform towards 2010 (LAISR 2010).
We will leverage APEC's traditional strengths of voluntary cooperation, capacity building, sharing of best practices, and working with the private sector, to implement necessary reforms in infrastructure development, agriculture/food management, social security, education and workforce training, and regulatory frameworks. We will work with the International Financial Institutions and Multilateral Development Banks to facilitate these efforts. Given APEC's diversity, these reforms must take into account individual economies' stage of development, demographic trends, factor and institutional endowments, and comparative advantages.
Fostering Inclusive Growth
We resolve to ensure that future economic growth is more inclusive, to broaden access to opportunities created by growth and to spread the benefits of growth more widely. This will enable our economies to better seize the opportunities created by globalisation and to respond to its challenges. Inclusive growth will strengthen the consensus for free and open trade and investment.
APEC's inclusive growth agenda will build on ongoing efforts on structural reform under LAISR 2010 and will be driven by two key thrusts. First, we will undertake structural adjustments that will enhance opportunities for all segments of our societies to benefit from growth. Emphasis will be placed on the following specific areas:
We will support and develop our small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which account for more than 90 percent of all businesses in the APEC region and employ between 50 and 80 percent of the workforce. We will assist SMEs to gain better access to global markets, technology and finance as well as to improve their crisis management capabilities.
We will put job creation at the heart of our economic strategy and enhance cooperation to address the social implications of globalisation. We will facilitate the retraining, skills upgrading and mobility of our workers so that they can secure jobs, especially in new and growing industries.
We will focus on enhancing women's access to education, training, financing, technology, and infrastructure, to maximise their economic opportunities. We welcome continued outreach to women entrepreneurs to grow the positive multiplier effect that women's economic engagement can have on productivity and sustained growth.
Second, we will strengthen social resilience to help individuals overcome short-term difficulties while providing the incentive for long-term effort, with a focus on the most vulnerable in our economies.
We will improve outcomes in education and skills-training to enhance long-term economic security.
We will consider income supplements or earned income tax credits that encourage work and enterprise.
We will design social safety nets that provide short-term economic security but avoid long-term dependency.
We instruct our Ministers and officials to further advance APEC's inclusive growth agenda in 2010, and develop a multi-year programme to build capacity for structural reforms and SME development, employment creation, and the development of social safety nets.
Promoting Sustainable Growth
We will ensure that economic growth in our region is consistent with sustainable development. Anthropogenic climate change is one of the biggest global challenges. It will impact each of our economies. We welcome the Declaration of the Leaders of the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate in L'Aquila and the Leaders' Statement at the G-20 Pittsburgh Summit, and reaffirm our commitment to tackle the threat of climate change and work towards an ambitious outcome in Copenhagen, within the objective, provisions and principles of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will need to be accompanied by measures, including financial assistance and technology transfer to developing economies for their adaptation to the adverse impact of climate change.
We recall our Declaration on Climate Change, Energy Security and Clean Development in Sydney in 2007, which set out an APEC-wide aspirational target of reducing energy intensity by at least 25 percent by 2030. We applaud the efforts made by individual APEC economies that have unilaterally undertaken measures to reduce emissions. Sustainable forest management plays an important role in mitigating global emissions. We will enhance work on meeting the aspirational goal in the Sydney Declaration of increasing forest cover in the region by at least 20 million hectares of all types of forests by 2020. We support efforts in the UNFCCC negotiations to agree on actions to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) in developing economies. We recognise the role of the oceans in mitigating climate change, and the impact of climate change on oceans and coastal areas, and welcome the Manado Ocean Declaration.
Responding to climate change through transition to green economies also offers opportunities. We will ensure that efforts to address climate change are consistent with our international trade obligations. A key thrust in APEC's sustainable growth agenda is the APEC Environmental Goods and Services (EGS) Work Programme, under which we will develop and implement a set of concrete actions to support sustainable growth in the region, advance work to increase utilisation and dissemination of EGS, reduce existing barriers and refrain from introducing new barriers to trade and investment in EGS, and enhance capabilities of economies to develop their EGS sectors. We also commit to rationalise and phase out over the medium term fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption, while recognising the importance of providing those in need with essential energy services. We will review progress on this at our meeting in 2010. We will also take steps to facilitate the diffusion of climate-friendly technologies, including through economic and technical cooperation (ECOTECH) and capacity building activities.
We will advance work on sharing best practices in energy efficiency with a view to deploying cleaner and more efficient technologies, and welcome the implementation of the voluntary APEC Peer Review on Energy Efficiency. We recognise the role of renewable energy in reducing emissions and encourage its development in the APEC region. We will encourage publication on a regular basis, timely, accurate, and complete data on oil production, consumption, refining and stock levels as appropriate.
We firmly reject all forms of protectionism and reaffirm our commitment to keep markets open and refrain from raising new barriers to investment or to trade in goods and services, and instruct our Ministers to continue to regularly review our adherence to these commitments. These efforts reinforce the WTO's own monitoring mechanism, and act as another bulwark against protectionist pressures by ensuring transparency in the measures taken in response to the crisis.
Supporting the Multilateral Trading System
We strongly reaffirm that the most effective means of dealing with protectionist pressures and delivering a global stimulus package to sustain and secure our recovery is an ambitious and balanced conclusion to the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) in 2010, based on the progress achieved to-date, including with regard to modalities. It is important that the high-level political commitment to concluding the Doha Round translates into substantive progress in the negotiations. We are ready to exercise pragmatism and all possible flexibility and utilise all possible avenues in order to accelerate the pace of negotiations to secure convergence on a final package. We instruct our Ministers to work closely on what needs to be done to bring the DDA to a successful conclusion and to assess the situation no later than in early 2010.
Accelerating Regional Economic Integration
We reaffirm our commitment to the Bogor Goals of free and open trade and investment. We direct Ministers and officials to report to us next year with a meaningful assessment of the industrialised APEC economies' achievement of the Bogor Goals.
We will continue to explore building blocks towards a possible Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP) in the future. An analytical study by officials shows that there are significant economic benefits from an FTAAP, as well as the challenges of establishing such an agreement. We look forward to the progress update from Ministers and officials next year on the outcomes of the exploration of a range of possible pathways to achieve FTAAP.
We will accelerate our work to strengthen REI in the Asia-Pacific, taking a comprehensive approach that focuses our work on trade liberalisation “at the border"; improving the business environment “behind the border"; and enhancing supply chain connectivity “across the border".
We instruct officials to intensify our work on initiatives to promote greater convergences among economies in key areas of APEC's REI agenda, including in services, the digital economy, investment, trade facilitation, rules of origin and standards/technical barriers to trade.
We welcome the participation of Australia, Canada, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Singapore, and the United States in a pathfinder initiative under which economies will agree to practice self-certification of origin with FTA partners. This initiative will facilitate trade by cutting the certification procedure down to a single step and reducing processing time to just one day.
We endorse the APEC Principles for Cross-Border Trade in Services and the APEC Services Action Plan, which together will provide a foundation for APEC's future work to promote services trade and build greater convergences among APEC economies in their treatment of services.
e aspire to achieve an APEC-wide improvement of 25 percent in five key areas of doing business by 2015: Starting a Business, Getting Credit, Enforcing Contracts, Trading Across Borders and Dealing with Permits, and a 5 percent improvement by 2011. We welcome the preparation of capacity building work programmes by champion economies – United States; New Zealand; Japan; Korea; Hong Kong, China; and Singapore – and encourage continuous and concerted efforts through the Ease of Doing Business Action Plan to make it cheaper, faster and easier to do business in the Asia-Pacific.
We look forward to the progress stock-take in implementing the LAISR forward work programme in 2010, and instruct our Ministers and officials to strategise the next phase of the LAISR, including in the context of supporting our new growth strategies.
We look towards the successful conclusion of APEC's second Trade Facilitation Action Plan in 2010, and are pleased to note that APEC as a whole is on track to reduce trade transaction costs by an additional 5 percent by 2010.
We will develop common approaches towards well-functioning public-private partnership (PPP) markets. We encourage officials to explore the feasibility of utilising PPPs for the upgrading of transport infrastructure that contributes to the enhancement of supply chain connectivity in the region.
We welcome the Supply Chain Connectivity Framework, which has identified eight chokepoints in regional supply chains and suggested actions to address these chokepoints. We welcome the commitment from Transport Ministers to achieve greater seamlessness in our multi-modal transport networks and call for officials to continue cohesive efforts towards improving supply chain connectivity.
We welcome the work undertaken in identifying performance indicators for the Investment Facilitation Action Plan (IFAP) and look forward to the implementation of the IFAP next year.
We reaffirm our commitment to strengthen the protection and enforcement of intellectual property (IP) rights and reiterated the importance of comprehensive and balanced intellectual property (IP) systems that provide for and protect the incentives that encourage creation and innovation and provide the tools for successful management and exploitation of IP rights. We will continue to promote greater collaboration among our IP rights experts, APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC), and enforcement authorities across the APEC region and recognise the importance of capacity building. We welcome the progress made by economies in implementing the APEC Anti-Counterfeiting and Piracy Initiative as well as cooperation to improve patent systems in the region, and look forward to further progress next year.
We encourage ongoing efforts towards using ICT to address socio-economic issues and realising APEC's goal of achieving universal access to broadband in all member economies by 2015.
We support the outcomes and recommendations of the APEC Trade Recovery Programme Pilot Exercise. We reaffirm the importance for our economies to implement initiatives, such as communications mechanisms and other approaches to trade recovery, to build trusted relationships and to recognise one another's Authorised Economic Operator (AEO) programmes in alignment with the World Customs Organization (WCO) SAFE Framework of Standards.
Strengthening Economic and Technical Cooperation
Building capacity for reforms aimed at facilitating inclusive growth and REI remains a key priority for APEC. We reaffirm our commitment to the Manila Framework, which serves as the basis for the implementation of the ECOTECH activities outlined in the Osaka Action Agenda. We recognise that capacity building needs evolve as priorities shift to meet new challenges. Therefore, we welcome ongoing efforts to develop a more strategic, goal-oriented and multi-year approach toward capacity building, and to strengthen the prioritisation and effective implementation of capacity building activities across APEC fora. We welcome the establishment of the US$10 million China APEC Cooperation Fund which aims to facilitate and promote APEC ECOTECH cooperation.
Enhancing Human Security
We express our deepest condolences for the loss of life and destruction caused by the devastating typhoons that hit China, Japan, the Philippines, Chinese Taipei and Viet Nam, and the earthquakes and the recent terrorist attacks in Indonesia. We reaffirm the importance of enhancing human security and reducing the threat of disruptions to business and trade in sustaining economic growth and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region. We recognise the importance of building capacity to counter terrorism and welcome APEC's work in areas such as trade security, aviation security, anti-terrorist protection of energy infrastructure, countering terrorism financing, fighting cyber-terrorism, protecting the food supply against terrorist contamination and emergency preparedness.
Responding to food security challenges in the region is a major priority for APEC. Food security, including access to reliable sources of nutritious, safe and affordable food, remains a concern for many in the Asia-Pacific region and around the world. We encourage continued cooperation with the private sector, academia, and civil society to address food security and safe food supply challenges, including by promoting sustainable agricultural production and rural development, and instruct officials to undertake capacity building projects and other practical initiatives to address food security, and report back to us next year on their progress. We support the L'Aquila Joint Statement on Global Food Security.
We welcome the sharing of experiences in dealing with the double global impact of the economic crisis and the Influenza Pandemic (H1N1) in 2009. We reaffirm our commitment to build regional capacity for avian and other potential human influenza pandemics and emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases such as HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis. We will strengthen our health systems and cooperate to prevent and control emerging infectious diseases in the world.
Fighting Corruption, Improving Governance and Transparency
Good governance, institutional integrity, and transparency in both the public and private sectors have a critical impact on the smooth flow of trade and economic activities and help to mitigate crime and corruption. We recognise the mutually reinforcing relationship between good governance measures and anti-corruption actions. We welcome the efforts of member economies and ABAC in these areas and encourage public-private partnerships to further APEC efforts to enhance governance, institutional integrity and combat corruption.
We welcome the efforts of ABAC and the business community to enhance governance and encourage economies to work through public-private partnership to further APEC efforts in this area.
We note the importance of international cooperation in combating and dismantling the threat of cross-border criminal networks and its linkages with corruption nodes. We encourage member economies, where applicable, to ratify the UN Convention against Corruption and UN Convention against Transnational Organised Crime and take measures to implement their provisions, in accordance with economies' legal frameworks.
A revitalised APEC is crucial to meet the challenges of sustaining recovery and to deal with the region's 21st century economic challenges. To do so, APEC economies must forge a partnership of common interests to produce strong, balanced and sustainable growth. The appointment of the Secretariat's first Executive Director for a fixed term is an important first step to strengthen the capacity of the APEC Secretariat to meet the growing demands of member economies and other key stakeholders. We direct our Ministers and officials to accelerate efforts to develop more responsive and effective mechanisms to ensure that APEC remains the premier forum for regional economic cooperation.
PRESIDENT OBAMA: Thank you so much. Arigatou. Thank you very much. (Applause.) Good morning. It is a great honor to be in Tokyo -- the first stop on my first visit to Asia as President of the United States. (Applause.) Thank you. It is good to be among so many of you -- Japanese and I see a few Americans here -- (applause) -- who work every day to strengthen the bonds between our two countries, including my longtime friend and our new ambassador to Japan, John Roos. (Applause.)
It is wonderful to be back in Japan. Some of you may be aware that when I was a young boy, my mother brought me to Kamakura, where I looked up at that centuries-old symbol of peace and tranquility -- the great bronze Amida Buddha. And as a child, I was more focused on the matcha ice cream. (Laughter.) And I want to thank Prime Minister Hatoyama for sharing some of those memories with more ice cream last night at dinner. (Laughter and applause.) Thank you very much. But I have never forgotten the warmth and the hospitality that the Japanese people showed a young American far from home.
And I feel that same spirit on this visit: In the gracious welcome of Prime Minister Hatoyama. In the extraordinary honor of the meeting with Their Imperial Majesties, the Emperor and Empress, on the 20th anniversary of his ascension to the Chrysanthemum Throne. In the hospitality shown by the Japanese people. And of course, I could not come here without sending my greetings and gratitude to the citizens of Obama, Japan. (Applause.)
Now, I am beginning my journey here for a simple reason. Since taking office, I have worked to renew American leadership and pursue a new era of engagement with the world based on mutual interests and mutual respect. And our efforts in the Asia Pacific will be rooted, in no small measure, through an enduring and revitalized alliance between the United States and Japan.
From my very first days in office, we have worked to strengthen the ties that bind our nations. The first foreign leader that I welcomed to the White House was the Prime Minister of Japan, and for the first time in nearly 50 years, the first foreign trip by an American Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, was to Asia, starting in Japan. (Applause.)
In two months, our alliance will mark its 50th anniversary -- a day when President Dwight Eisenhower stood next to Japan's Prime Minister and said that our two nations were creating "an indestructible partnership" based on "equality and mutual understanding."
In the half-century since, that alliance has endured as a foundation for our security and prosperity. It has helped us become the world's two largest economies, with Japan emerging as America's second-largest trading partner outside of North America. It has evolved as Japan has played a larger role on the world stage, and made important contributions to stability around the world -- from reconstruction in Iraq, to combating piracy off the Horn of Africa, to assistance for the people of Afghanistan and Pakistan -- most recently through its remarkable leadership in providing additional commitments to international development efforts there.
Above all, our alliance has endured because it reflects our common values -- a belief in the democratic right of free people to choose their own leaders and realize their own dreams; a belief that made possible the election of both Prime Minister Hatoyama and myself on the promise of change. And together, we are committed to providing a new generation of leadership for our people and our alliance.
That is why, at this critical moment in history, the two of us have not only reaffirmed our alliance -- we've agreed to deepen it. We've agreed to move expeditiously through a joint working group to implement the agreement that our two governments reached on restructuring U.S. forces in Okinawa. And as our alliance evolves and adapts for the future, we will always strive to uphold the spirit that President Eisenhower described long ago -- a partnership of equality and mutual respect. (Applause.)
But while our commitment to this region begins in Japan, it doesn't end here. The United States of America may have started as a series of ports and cities along the Atlantic Ocean, but for generations we have also been a nation of the Pacific. Asia and the United States are not separated by this great ocean; we are bound by it. We are bound by our past -- by the Asian immigrants who helped build America, and the generations of Americans in uniform who served and sacrificed to keep this region secure and free. We are bound by our shared prosperity -- by the trade and commerce upon which millions of jobs and families depend. And we are bound by our people -- by the Asian Americans who enrich every segment of American life, and all the people whose lives, like our countries, are interwoven.
My own life is a part of that story. I am an American President who was born in Hawaii and lived in Indonesia as a boy. My sister Maya was born in Jakarta, and later married a Chinese-Canadian. My mother spent nearly a decade working in the villages of Southeast Asia, helping women buy a sewing machine or an education that might give them a foothold in the world economy. So the Pacific Rim has helped shape my view of the world.
And since that time, perhaps no region has changed as swiftly or dramatically. Controlled economies have given way to open markets. Dictatorships have become democracies. Living standards have risen while poverty has plummeted. And through all these changes, the fortunes of America and the Asia Pacific have become more closely linked than ever before.
So I want everyone to know, and I want everybody in America to know, that we have a stake in the future of this region, because what happens here has a direct effect on our lives at home. This is where we engage in much of our commerce and buy many of our goods. And this is where we can export more of our own products and create jobs back home in the process. This is a place where the risk of a nuclear arms race threatens the security of the wider world, and where extremists who defile a great religion plan attacks on both our continents. And there can be no solution to our energy security and our climate challenge without the rising powers and developing nations of the Asia Pacific.
To meet these common challenges, the United States looks to strengthen old alliances and build new partnerships with the nations of this region. To do this, we look to America's treaty alliances with Japan, South Korea, Australia, Thailand and the Philippines -- alliances that are not historical documents from a bygone era, but abiding commitments to each other that are fundamental to our shared security.
These alliances continue to provide the bedrock of security and stability that has allowed the nations and peoples of this region to pursue opportunity and prosperity that was unimaginable at the time of my first childhood visit to Japan. And even as American troops are engaged in two wars around the world, our commitment to Japan's security and to Asia's security is unshakeable -- (applause) -- and it can be seen in our deployments throughout the region -- above all, through our young men and women in uniform, of whom I am so proud.
Now, we look to emerging nations that are poised as well to play a larger role -- both in the Asia Pacific region and the wider world; places like Indonesia and Malaysia that have adopted democracy, developed their economies, and tapped the great potential of their own people.
We look to rising powers with the view that in the 21st century, the national security and economic growth of one country need not come at the expense of another. I know there are many who question how the United States perceives China's emergence. But as I have said, in an interconnected world, power does not need to be a zero-sum game, and nations need not fear the success of another. Cultivating spheres of cooperation -- not competing spheres of influence -- will lead to progress in the Asia Pacific. (Applause.)
Now, as with any nation, America will approach China with a focus on our interests. And it's precisely for this reason that it is important to pursue pragmatic cooperation with China on issues of mutual concern, because no one nation can meet the challenges of the 21st century alone, and the United States and China will both be better off when we are able to meet them together. That's why we welcome China's effort to play a greater role on the world stage -- a role in which their growing economy is joined by growing responsibility. China's partnership has proved critical in our effort to jumpstart economic recovery. China has promoted security and stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan. And it is now committed to the global nonproliferation regime, and supporting the pursuit of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
So the United States does not seek to contain China, nor does a deeper relationship with China mean a weakening of our bilateral alliances. On the contrary, the rise of a strong, prosperous China can be a source of strength for the community of nations.
And so in Beijing and beyond, we will work to deepen our strategic and economic dialogue, and improve communication between our militaries. Of course, we will not agree on every issue, and the United States will never waver in speaking up for the fundamental values that we hold dear -- and that includes respect for the religion and cultures of all people -- because support for human rights and human dignity is ingrained in America. But we can move these discussions forward in a spirit of partnership rather than rancor.
In addition to our bilateral relations, we also believe that the growth of multilateral organizations can advance the security and prosperity of this region. I know that the United States has been disengaged from many of these organizations in recent years. So let me be clear: Those days have passed. As a Asia Pacific nation, the United States expects to be involved in the discussions that shape the future of this region, and to participate fully in appropriate organizations as they are established and evolve. (Applause.)
That is the work that I will begin on this trip. The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum will continue to promote regional commerce and prosperity, and I look forward to participating in that forum this evening. ASEAN will remain a catalyst for Southeast Asian dialogue, cooperation and security, and I look forward to becoming the first American President to meet with all 10 ASEAN leaders. (Applause.) And the United States looks forward to engaging with the East Asia Summit more formally as it plays a role in addressing the challenges of our time.
We seek this deeper and broader engagement because we know our collective future depends on it. And I'd like to speak for a bit about what that future might look like, and what we must do to advance our prosperity, our security, and our universal values and aspirations.
First, we must strengthen our economic recovery, and pursue growth that is both balanced and sustained.
The quick, unprecedented and coordinated action taken by Asia Pacific nations and others has averted economic catastrophe, and helped us to begin to emerge from the worst recession in generations. And we have taken the historic step of reforming our international economic architecture, so that the G20 is now the premier forum for international economic cooperation.
Now, this shift to the G20, along with the greater voice that is being given to Asian nations in international financial institutions, clearly demonstrates the broader, more inclusive engagement that America seeks in the 21st century. And as a key member of the G8, Japan has and will continue to play a leading and vital role in shaping the future of the international financial architecture. (Applause.)
Now that we are on the brink of economic recovery, we must also ensure that it can be sustained. We simply cannot return to the same cycles of boom and bust that led to a global recession. We can't follow the same policies that led to such imbalanced growth. One of the important lessons this recession has taught us is the limits of depending primarily on American consumers and Asian exports to drive growth -- because when Americans found themselves too heavily in debt or lost their jobs and were out of work, demand for Asian goods plummeted. When demand fell sharply, exports from this region fell sharply. Since the economies of this region are so dependent on exports, they stopped growing. And the global recession only deepened.
So we have now reached one of those rare inflection points in history where we have the opportunity to take a different path. And that must begin with the G20 pledge that we made in Pittsburgh to pursue a new strategy for balanced economic growth.
I'll be saying more about this in Singapore, but in the United States, this new strategy will mean that we save more and spend less, reform our financial systems, reduce our long-term deficit and borrowing. It will also mean a greater emphasis on exports that we can build, produce, and sell all over the world. For America, this is a jobs strategy. Right now, our exports support millions upon millions of well-paying American jobs. Increasing those exports by just a small amount has the potential to create millions more. These are jobs making everything from wind turbines and solar panels to the technology that you use every day.
For Asia, striking this better balance will provide an opportunity for workers and consumers to enjoy higher standards of living that their remarkable increases in productivity have made possible. It will allow for greater investments in housing and infrastructure and the service sector. And a more balanced global economy will lead to prosperity that reaches further and deeper.
For decades, the United States has had one of the most open markets in the world, and that openness has helped to fuel the success of so many countries in this region and others over the last century. In this new era, opening other markets around the globe will be critical not just to America's prosperity, but to the world's, as well.
An integral part of this new strategy is working towards an ambitious and balanced Doha agreement -- not any agreement, but an agreement that will open up markets and increase exports around the world. We are ready to work with our Asian partners to see if we can achieve that objective in a timely fashion -- and we invite our regional trading partners to join us at the table.
We also believe that continued integration of the economies of this region will benefit workers, consumers, and businesses in all our nations. Together, with our South Korean friends, we will work through the issues necessary to move forward on a trade agreement with them. The United States will also be engaging with the Trans-Pacific Partnership countries with the goal of shaping a regional agreement that will have broad-based membership and the high standards worthy of a 21st century trade agreement.
Working in partnership, this is how we can sustain this recovery and advance our common prosperity. But it's not enough to pursue growth that is balanced. We also need growth that is sustainable -- for our planet and the future generations that will live here.
Already, the United States has taken more steps to combat climate change in 10 months than we have in our recent history -- (applause) -- by embracing the latest science, by investing in new energy, by raising efficiency standards, forging new partnerships, and engaging in international climate negotiations. In short, America knows there is more work to do -- but we are meeting our responsibility, and will continue to do so.
And that includes striving for success in Copenhagen. I have no illusions that this will be easy, but the contours of a way forward are clear. All nations must accept their responsibility. Those nations, like my own, who have been the leading emitters must have clear reduction targets. Developing countries will need to take substantial actions to curb their emissions, aided by finance and technology. And there must be transparency and accountability for domestic actions.
Each of us must do what we can to grow our economies without endangering our planet -- and we must do it together. But the good news is that if we put the right rules and incentives in place, it will unleash the creative power of our best scientists, engineers, and entrepreneurs. It will lead to new jobs, new businesses, and entire new industries. And Japan has been at the forefront on this issue. We are looking forward to being a important partner with you as we achieve this critical global goal. (Applause.)
Yet, even as we confront this challenge of the 21st century, we must also redouble our efforts to meet a threat to our security that is the legacy of the 20th century -- the danger posed by nuclear weapons.
In Prague, I affirmed America's commitment to rid the world of nuclear weapons, and laid out a comprehensive agenda to pursue this goal. (Applause.) I am pleased that Japan has joined us in this effort, for no two nations on Earth know better what these weapons can do, and together we must seek a future without them. This is fundamental to our common security, and this is a great test of our common humanity. Our very future hangs in the balance.
Now, let me be clear: So long as these weapons exist, the United States will maintain a strong and effective nuclear deterrent that guarantees the defense of our allies -- including South Korea and Japan. (Applause.)
But we must recognize that an escalating nuclear arms race in this region would undermine decades of growth and prosperity. So we are called upon to uphold the basic bargain of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty -- that all nations have a right to peaceful nuclear energy; that nations with nuclear weapons have a responsibility to move toward nuclear disarmament; and those without nuclear weapons have a responsibility to forsake them.
Indeed, Japan serves as an example to the world that true peace and power can be achieved by taking this path. (Applause.) For decades, Japan has enjoyed the benefits of peaceful nuclear energy, while rejecting nuclear arms development -- and by any measure, this has increased Japan's security and enhanced its position.
To meet our responsibilities and to move forward with the agenda I laid out in Prague, we have passed, with the help of Japan, a unanimous U.N. Security Council resolution embracing this international effort. We are pursuing a new agreement with Russia to reduce our nuclear stockpiles. We will work to ratify and bring into force the test ban treaty. (Applause.) And next year at our Nuclear Security Summit, we will advance our goal of securing all the world's vulnerable nuclear materials within four years.
Now, as I've said before, strengthening the global nonproliferation regime is not about singling out any individual nations. It's about all nations living up to their responsibilities. That includes the Islamic Republic of Iran. And it includes North Korea.
For decades, North Korea has chosen a path of confrontation and provocation, including the pursuit of nuclear weapons. It should be clear where this path leads. We have tightened sanctions on Pyongyang. We have passed the most sweeping U.N. Security Council resolution to date to restrict their weapons of mass destruction activities. We will not be cowed by threats, and we will continue to send a clear message through our actions, and not just our words: North Korea's refusal to meet its international obligations will lead only to less security -- not more.
Yet there is another path that can be taken. Working in tandem with our partners -- supported by direct diplomacy -- the United States is prepared to offer North Korea a different future. Instead of an isolation that has compounded the horrific repression of its own people, North Korea could have a future of international integration. Instead of gripping poverty, it could have a future of economic opportunity -- where trade and investment and tourism can offer the North Korean people the chance at a better life. And instead of increasing insecurity, it could have a future of greater security and respect. This respect cannot be earned through belligerence. It must be reached by a nation that takes its place in the international community by fully living up to its international obligations.
So the path for North Korea to realize this future is clear: a return to the six-party talks; upholding previous commitments, including a return to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty; and the full and verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. And full normalization with its neighbors can also only come if Japanese families receive a full accounting of those who have been abducted. (Applause.) These are all steps that can be taken by the North Korean government if they are interested in improving the lives of their people and joining the community of nations.
And as we are vigilant in confronting this challenge, we will stand with all of our Asian partners in combating the transnational threats of the 21st century: by rooting out the extremists who slaughter the innocent, and stopping the piracy that threatens our sea lanes; by enhancing our efforts to stop infectious disease, and working to end extreme poverty in our time; and by shutting down the traffickers who exploit women, children and migrants, and putting a stop to this scourge of modern-day slavery once and for all. Indeed, the final area in which we must work together is in upholding the fundamental rights and dignity of all human beings.
The Asia Pacific region is rich with many cultures. It is marked by extraordinary traditions and strong national histories. And time and again, we have seen the remarkable talent and drive of the peoples of this region in advancing human progress. Yet this much is also clear -- indigenous cultures and economic growth have not been stymied by respect for human rights; they have been strengthened by it. Supporting human rights provides lasting security that cannot be purchased in any other way -- that is the story that can be seen in Japan's democracy, just as it can be seen in America's democracy.
The longing for liberty and dignity is a part of the story of all peoples. For there are certain aspirations that human beings hold in common: the freedom to speak your mind, and choose your leaders; the ability to access information, and worship how you please; confidence in the rule of law, and the equal administration of justice. These are not impediments to stability, they are the cornerstones of stability. And we will always stand on the side of those who seek these rights.
That truth, for example, guides our new approach to Burma. Despite years of good intentions, neither sanctions by the United States nor engagement by others succeeded in improving the lives of the Burmese people. So we are now communicating directly with the leadership to make it clear that existing sanctions will remain until there are concrete steps toward democratic reform. We support a Burma that is unified, peaceful, prosperous, and democratic. And as Burma moves in that direction, a better relationship with the United States is possible.
There are clear steps that must be taken -- the unconditional release of all political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi; an end to conflicts with minority groups; and a genuine dialogue between the government, the democratic opposition and minority groups on a shared vision for the future. That is how a government in Burma will be able to respond to the needs of its people. That is the path that will bring Burma true security and prosperity. (Applause.)
These are steps that the United States will take to improve prosperity, security, and human dignity in the Asia Pacific. We will do so through our close friendship with Japan -- which will always be a centerpiece of our efforts in the region. We will do so as a partner -- through the broader engagement that I've discussed today. We will do so as a Pacific nation -- with a President who was shaped in part by this piece of the globe. And we will do so with the same sense of purpose that has guided our ties with the Japanese people for nearly 50 years.
The story of how these ties were forged dates back to the middle of the last century, sometime after the guns of war had quieted in the Pacific. It was then that America's commitment to the security and stability of Japan, along with the Japanese peoples' spirit of resilience and industriousness, led to what's been called "the Japanese miracle" -- a period of economic growth that was faster and more robust than anything the world had seen for some time.
In the coming years and decades, this miracle would spread throughout the region, and in a single generation the lives and fortunes of millions were forever changed for the better. It is progress that has been supported by a hard-earned peace, and strengthened by new bridges of mutual understanding that have bound together the nations of this vast and sprawling space.
But we know that there's still work to be done -- so that new breakthroughs in science and technology can lead to jobs on both sides of the Pacific, and security from a warming planet; so that we can reverse the spread of deadly weapons, and -- on a divided peninsula -- the people of South can be freed from fear, and those in the North can live free from want; so that a young girl can be valued not for her body but for her mind; and so that young people everywhere can go as far as their talent and their drive and their choices will take them.
None of this will come easy, nor without setback or struggle. But at this moment of renewal -- in this land of miracles -- history tells us it is possible. This is the --America's agenda. This is the purpose of our partnership with Japan, and with the nations and peoples of this region. And there must be no doubt: As America's first Pacific President, I promise you that this Pacific nation will strengthen and sustain our leadership in this vitally important part of the world.
最初のニューヨーク・タイムズの記事は、例の8月26日付けで同紙に掲載された "A New Path for Japan" にやや対応しているのかもしれませんが、書き出しが "President Obama will arrive in Tokyo on Friday, at a time when America's relations with Japan are at their most contentious since the trade wars of the 1990s" だったりしますし、途中にも、"Japanese government officials have suddenly lost their shyness about publicly sparring with American officials" なんて、タイトル通りに、日本が米国に冷たくなったことを書き立てています。
次のエコノミスト誌もかなり辛辣です。上の風刺画を挿入し、"The Democrats' debut has been worryingly unharmonious - and the 'bond vigilantes' are starting to make groaning noises, too" で書き始めています。上のマンガのように鳩山内閣をオーケストラになぞらえて、現時点までは "So far the result has been cacophony" とこき下ろしています。鳩山内閣の誕生の背景には、半世紀にわたる自民党政権下での政官業の鉄の三角形に対する有権者の欲求不満があったとしながらも、"But discord in the cabinet, and a woeful absence of discussion about the budget next year and beyond, have left many worried. Foreign allies are wondering what the new government stands for. Investors are beginning to vote with their feet, driving up Japanese government-bond yields." と最後の国債金利の上昇こそ、木曜日あたりから解消しましたが、予算策定過程に関する不一致をやり玉に挙げています。これが、「事業仕分け」でどこまで解消されるのか、あるいは、拡大されるのか、私も「事業仕分け」が終結した段階で少し考えてみようと思わなくもありません。
本日、内閣府から10月の景気ウォッチャー調査の結果が発表されました。天候不順の影響で8月に下がった後、今年前半の勢いこそありませんが、9月に上昇してから最新結果の10月は再び少し落ちました。消費者の節約志向とそれに対応した低価格化の進展、さらに9月の連休の反動が旅行関連を中心に出たことが上げられます。でも、水準としてはめったに50に届かない指標がまだ40を維持しているんですから、決して悪くないと私は受け止めています。ですから、私は今年年末から来年年始にかけて2番底を付けに行く W 字型の景気パスを想定していたんですが、この景気ウォッチャーに示された国民のマインドを考えると、この2番底は1-2四半期後ズレするんではないかと考え始めています。もちろん、景気ウォッチャーだけでなく、その他の経済指標も考慮した結果です。
上のグラフはGDP成長率なんですが、内需に注目した同じようなグラフの見られます。従って、リポートの p.12 Figure 14. China's imports have rebounded more strongly than those of the G-3 に見る通り、中国の輸入は早くも今年4-6月期にはかなりの回復に転じ、米国を上回るテンポで中国は世界経済を貿易からけん引している姿が浮かび上がります。
GDP で測った世界経済にとって中国の貢献が大きいということを示した図表がリポートの p.33 にあります。まず、いくつかのメディアでも見かけた記憶がありますが、Figure 45. The increase in China's GDP offset three-fourths of the decline in G3's GDP では今年2009寝における日米欧の G3 の GDP の落ち込みの 2/3 を中国が相殺していると世銀では見通しています。
ついでながら、同じページの Table 4. Thanks to China, developing East Asia will remain the fastest growing world region によれば、中国のおかげで東アジアは世界でもっとも成長著しい地域となっているとのことです。
上の Table 4. のタイトルが "Thanks to China" とやや押しつけがましいんですが、日本も今しばらくは中国をはじめとする新興国に依存する成長を続けるのかもしれません。
Communiqué Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, United Kingdom, 7 November 2009
We, the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, met at a critical point in the recovery from the crisis to deliver the work remitted to us at Pittsburgh.
Economic and financial conditions have improved following our coordinated response to the crisis. However, the recovery is uneven and remains dependent on policy support, and high unemployment is a major concern. To restore the global economy and financial system to health, we agreed to maintain support for the recovery until it is assured.
To underscore our new approach to economic cooperation, we launched the G20 Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth, adopted a detailed timetable and initiated a new consultative mutual assessment process to evaluate whether our policies will collectively deliver our agreed objectives. We will be assisted in our assessment by IMF and World Bank analyses and the input of other international organisations as appropriate, including the FSB, OECD, MDBs, ILO, WTO and UNCTAD. We agreed a compact:
to set out our national and regional policy frameworks, programmes and projections by the end of January 2010;
to conduct the initial phase of our cooperative mutual assessment process, supported by IMF and World Bank analyses, of the collective consistency of our national and regional policies with our shared objectives, taking into account our institutional arrangements, in April 2010;
to develop a basket of policy options to deliver those objectives, for Leaders to consider at their next Summit in June 2010; and,
to refine our mutual assessment and develop more specific policy recommendations for Leaders at their Summit in November 2010.
Our first challenge in using the Framework will be the transition from crisis response to stronger, more sustainable and balanced growth, consistent with our goals of sustainable public finances; price stability; stable, efficient and resilient financial systems; employment creation; and poverty reduction. While we will continue to provide support for the economy until the recovery is secured, we also commit to develop further our strategies for managing the withdrawal from our extraordinary macroeconomic and financial support measures. We agreed to cooperate and coordinate, taking into account any spillovers caused by our strategies, and consulting and sharing information where possible. To ensure credibility, our plans will be based on prudent assumptions and communicated promptly and transparently. We agreed to implement our plans flexibly, taking full account of variations in the pace of economic recovery and market conditions across countries and regions, and the complex interactions between different policy areas. The IMF and FSB will continue to assist us in reviewing strategies and implementation, identifying areas where coordination is particularly important and providing assessments of their collective impact on the global economy and the financial system. We welcome the work of the IMF and FSB to develop principles for exit.
The International Financial Institutions (IFIs) will play an important role in supporting our work to secure sustainable growth, stability, job creation, development and poverty reduction. It is therefore critical that we continue to increase their relevance, responsiveness, effectiveness and legitimacy. To this end, we reaffirmed our commitment to: deliver the representation and governance reforms agreed in Pittsburgh and reiterated the deadlines of the 2010 Spring Meetings for the World Bank and January 2011 for the IMF; complete the 2008 quota and voice reforms; complete the review of World Bank and RDB capital to ensure they have sufficient resources conditional on reforms to ensure effectiveness, by the first half of 2010; make progress on reviewing the mandate of the IMF; and, strengthen their capability to prevent and manage future crises. We look forward to the ambitious replenishment of IDA and the African Development Fund, and the work on exploring the benefits of an IDA crisis facility, and the work on the Stolen Assets Recovery Programme. We call on the IEA, OPEC, OECD and World Bank to produce a joint report for our next meeting on energy subsidies, and working with our Energy Ministers, we will prepare at that meeting implementation strategies and timeframes, based on our national circumstances, for rationalising and phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption, and for providing targeted assistance programmes. We call on the relevant institutions to finalise their work on ways to avoid excessive commodity price volatility and reaffirm our commitment to publish national data.
To continue strengthening the global financial system we agreed to work with the FSB to maintain the momentum of our programme of reforms, and ensure their full, timely and consistent implementation and a level playing field, in particular:
to strengthen prudential regulation, we emphasised the need for the Basel Committee to develop stronger standards by end-2010 to be phased in as financial conditions improve and the economic recovery is assured, with the aim of implementation by end-2012. We call on supervisors to ensure that banks retain, as needed, a greater proportion of their profits to build capital to support lending;
to ensure that compensation policies and practices support financial stability and align with long-term value creation, we commit to incorporate urgently within our national frameworks the FSB standards, and call on firms to implement these sound compensation practices immediately. The FSB will start assessing implementation without delay and report back with further proposals, as required, by March 2010;
we welcome the new IMF/BIS/FSB report on assessing the systemic importance of financial institutions, markets and instruments, and the FSB's work to reduce the moral hazard posed by systemically important institutions. We call for the rapid development of internationally consistent, firm-specific recovery and resolution plans and tools by end-2010. We look forward to discussing at our next meeting the IMF's review of options on how the financial sector could contribute to paying for burdens associated with government interventions to repair the banking system; and,
we welcome progress by the Global Forum on tax transparency and exchange of information, and the possible use of a multilateral instrument. To continue tackling non-cooperative jurisdictions (NCJs), we welcome progress made and call on the Global Forum, FSB and FATF to complete their peer review processes, and to assess adherence to international standards. We call on the relevant international institutions to further develop incentives and countermeasures as appropriate, in line with the timescales agreed in Pittsburgh, including through publishing lists of NCJs, and review capacity-building mechanisms to support the efforts of developing countries.
We committed to take action to tackle the threat of climate change and work towards an ambitious outcome in Copenhagen, within the objective, provisions and principles of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). We discussed climate change financing options and recognised the need to increase significantly and urgently the scale and predictability of finance to implement an ambitious international agreement. Public finance can leverage significant private investment. Increasing the scope of carbon markets would depend on policy frameworks of developed and developing countries and on the depth of emission reductions on the part of developed countries. To deliver this financing, coordinated equitable, transparent and effective institutional arrangements will be needed. Coordination of support for country-led plans and reporting of this support should be ensured across all financing channels, multilateral, regional and bilateral. We discussed a range of options and, recognising that finance will play an important role in the delivery of the outcome at Copenhagen, we commit to take forward further work on climate change finance, to define financing options and institutional arrangements.
We thanked our UK hosts for their presidency of the G20 this year and welcomed the Republic of Korea as chair in 2010. We have agreed that France will chair in 2011.
本日午後、内閣府から9月の景気動向指数が発表されました。CI 一致指数が前月から+1.3ポイント上昇し92.5となりました。2005年=100とする指数です。この結果、7か月後方移動平均の前月差が基準となる1標準偏差(0.51)以上の上昇となったため、基調判断が先月の「下げ止まり」から「上方への局面変化」と上方修正されました。いつものグラフは以下の通りです。上のパネルが CI で下が DI です。DI はとうとう94.4に達しました。影を付けた部分は景気後退期なんですが、直近の谷は今年の3月と仮置きしています。
9月の指数の上昇には、所定外労働時間指数(製造業)、鉱工業生産財出荷指数、投資財出荷指数(除輸送機械)などの寄与が高かったようです。でも少し前から、9月の景気動向指数の基調判断は、典型的には第一生命経済研のリポートにあるように、「上方への局面変化」に上方修正されると考えられていました。というのも、その昔の DI ほどではないものの、CI も発表済みの統計データからそう難しくなく計算できるからです。しかも、基調判断の基準が標準偏差の目安まで含めて明らかにされていますから、景気動向指数は極めて透明性の高い指標と言えます。それでも、その昔から計算間違いをするメディアやシンクタンクが後を絶たないことも事実です。
IMF の結論は "Maintain Fiscal Support, but Devise Credible Exit Strategies" というものですが、やや後者に重点が置かれている印象で、リポートの p.41 から始まる Appendix では "An increase in the overall fiscal deficit of 1 percent of GDP pushes up bond yields by about 20 basis points over the medium term." との実証結果を示し、その次の p.42 Annex Figure 1 のグラフで、各国の置かれた状況別にGDP比1％の財政赤字拡大が10年物国債金利に及ぼす影響を試算しています。下の灰色の部分がベースライン、上のピンクの部分が付加的なインパクトとなっており、左軸の単位はベーシス・ポイントです。日本なんかは一番左の "Large initial deficit" とか、左から4番目の "Population aging" なんかに属するんだろうと思います。金利上昇圧力は大きいのかもしれません。