5月の米国雇用統計は米国景気拡大テンポの加速を示唆!

昨夜、米国労働省から5月の米国雇用統計が公表されています。統計のヘッドラインとなる非農業部門雇用者数は前月から+217千人増加し、失業率も前月と変わらず6.3%の低い水準を維持しています。いずれも季節調整済みの系列です。まず、Los Angeles Times のサイトから記事を引用すると以下の通りです。

Economy recovers all jobs lost in Great Recession; don't celebrate yet
After adding 217,000 net new jobs last month, the U.S. economy has recovered all the positions lost during the Great Recession. But economists warned that the news Friday from the Labor Department was no real reason to celebrate.
"Things are improving, but it's happening agonizingly slowly," said Heidi Shierholz, a labor market economist at the Economic Policy Institute.
"At the pace we are currently going, it will take nearly four more years to get back to prerecession labor market conditions."
Total nonfarm employment in May reached 138.463 million, surpassing the previous high point of 138.365 million in January 2008, the Labor Department said.
The recession, which had just begun then, caused the economy to shed 8.7 million jobs through February 2010. The labor market has been slowly growing since then and the announcement that the workforce had hit a new record was a milestone in the recovery.
But Shierholz noted that the working-age population has grown by 14.5 million people since January 2008. She estimated the economy is still 6.9 million jobs short of where it was at the start of the recession, given that growth. The gap is reflected in the unemployment rate. The Labor Department said Friday that the rate held steady in May at 6.3%, the lowest level since September 2008. But the rate was 5% when the recession began in December 2007, and economists say that's roughly the full employment level.
And the unemployment rate might overstate the health of the labor market.
The labor force participation rate held steady in May at 62.8%, the lowest level since 1978, and Federal Reserve policymakers said they were using other indicators in addition to the unemployment rate to determine how much stimulus the economy still needs.
May's job growth was solid but unspectacular, down from 282,000 jobs added in April and roughly in line with analysts' expectations. The Labor Department initially estimated April's job growth at 288,000.
The economy has averaged 197,000 net new jobs a month over the last year.
But many of the jobs being created to replace those lost in the recession are lower-paying, such as retail sales clerks and restaurant workers.
"It is a quality game much more than it is a quantity game," said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at brokerage Sterne Agee.
"We're really not seeing that high-wage recovery that is indicative of a strong consumer lining their pockets with wages and going out and spending," she said.
The strongest job growth last month was in business and professional services and in healthcare and social assistance. Both sectors added 55,000 net new jobs. Employment in restaurants and bars rose by 32,000 in May. But higher-wage manufacturing and construction industries saw little change in employment.
Overall, average hourly earnings in the private sector rose by 5 cents last month to $24.38. Over the 12 months ended in May, wages are up 2.1%, not much above the rate needed to keep up with inflation.
After a winter slowdown caused by extreme weather, the recovery has shown signs of picking up.
The economy shrank 0.1% from January through March, the first quarterly contraction in three years. But economists are expecting the economy to grow by as much as 4% in the second quarter.

やや長いんですが、まずまずよく取りまとめられている印象があります。続いて、いつもの米国雇用統計のグラフは下の通りです。上のパネルは非農業部門雇用者数の前月差増減の推移とそのうちの民間部門、下のパネルは失業率です。いずれも季節調整済みの系列であり、影をつけた部分は景気後退期です。全体の雇用者増減とそのうちの民間部門は、2010年のセンサスの際にかなり乖離したものの、その後は大きな差は生じていません。

産業別に見ると、製造業や建設がまだ力強さにかける一方で、運輸・倉庫や教育・ヘルスケアやレジャーなどが大きな伸びを示しています。そして、何よりも、雇用者の増加が今年2月から4か月連続で200千人を超え、失業率も4月5月と6.3%という6%台半ばを下回る水準を維持しているわけですから、米国雇用はかなり堅調と言えます。雇用統計は米国の中央銀行である連邦準備制度理事会 (FED) がいわゆるデュアル・マンデート、すなわち物価の安定とともに雇用の最大化を追求することから、もっとも重視する指標とされており、先ごろ公表されたベージュブックでも各地で「安定、もしくは強含み」と指摘されているところです。1-3月期のGDP成長率こそ冴えなかったものの、引用した記事の最後のパラにある通り、4-6月期は成長率も高まる予想が一般的であり、今冬の寒波による停滞を乗り切って、ここ2-3か月で米国景気の拡大テンポが加速している可能性があると私は受け止めています。FED の量的緩和政策の終了、いわゆるテイパリングも着実に実行されるんではないかと考えられますし、早ければ、来年にも金利引上げが始まる可能性があります。

また、日本の経験も踏まえて、もっとも避けるべきデフレとの関係で、私が注目している時間当たり賃金の前年同月比上昇率は上のグラフの通りです。ならして見て、ほぼ底ばい状態が続いている印象です。逆にいえば、サブプライム危機前の+3%超の水準には復帰しそうもないんですが、同時に、底割れして日本のようにゼロやマイナスをつけて、デフレに陥る可能性は小さそうに見えます。ですから、欧州中央銀行は先の理事会でマイナス金利を適用してデフレ回避に全力を上げていますが、米国にはその必要はなさそうです。