やや停滞を示す4月の米国雇用統計をどう見るか?
日本時間の今夜、米国労働省から4月の米国雇用統計が公表されています。非農業雇用者数の前月差は今年2021年に入って着実にプラスを記録しているものの、本日公表の4月統計では+266千人増にとどまってしまいました。失業率は前月の6.0%から4月には6.1%にわずかに上昇しています。まず、長くなりますが、USA Tooday のサイトから統計のヘッドラインを報じる記事を最初の12パラだけ引用すると以下の通りです。
Economy added just 266K jobs in April, unemployment rose to 6.1% even as states eased restrictions, vaccinations rose
Employers added a disappointing 266,000 jobs in April even as the number of new COVID-19 cases stayed low, more states lifted constraints and vaccinations accelerated.
The gains fell well short of projections in a recovery that's expected to gather force through the summer, with a million or more jobs added each month.
The unemployment rate rose from 6% to 6.1% as a large increase in the labor force -- the number of Americans working or looking for jobs -- more than offset solid employment gains, the Labor Department said Friday.
Economists had estimated that 995,000 jobs were added last month, according to a Bloomberg survey. Instead, gains for February and March were revised down by a total 78,000, with March's blockbuster 916,000 additions downgraded to 770,000.
Leisure and hospitality, which includes restaurants and bars -- the industry hit hardest by payroll losses -- continued to recover, adding 331,000 jobs. But other sectors had weak showings. Professional and business services lost 79,000 jobs as staffing agencies cut 111,000 positions. Transportation and warehousing, which boomed as Americans largely stayed home during the pandemic, cut 74,000 jobs. Retail lost 15,000 jobs; manufacturing shed 18,000; and construction employment was unchanged after a massive gain the prior month.
The public sector added 48,000 jobs. More schools are reopening for in-person classes, bolstering employment in local public education education, which added 31,000 jobs. That's also allowing more parents to return to the workforce.
Job growth is expected to boom in coming months. Oxford Economics reckons a record 8 million or so jobs will be added this year.
New COVID cases held steady at a low level through April while increasing vaccinations led more states to lift capacity limits at restaurants and other businesses. About one-third of the U.S. population has been fully vaccinated, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That has prompted eateries and other outlets to recall more furloughed workers or ramp up hiring.
But after falling steadily throughout the health crisis, the number of Americans on temporary layoff rose by 88,000 to 2.1 million last month, suggesting some businesses continued to furlough workers even as others rehired staffers. About 21% of unemployed workers said they were on temporary layoff, largely unchanged from the previous month. That means many workers could still be brought back to their old jobs.
The ranks of Americans permanently laid off rose by 97,000 to 3.5 million and represents a longer-lasting scar for the economy.
Hiring is still expected to pick up sharply this spring and summer. States are reopening just as households are benefiting from massive income gains that have juiced spending. Americans are flush with two rounds of government stimulus checks -- totaling $2,000 for each individual - disbursed since December and enhanced unemployment benefits as part of $2.8 trillion in COVID relief.
But many employers say the jobless benefits - including a $300 federal supplement - are contributing to their biggest problem: a shortage of workers despite unemployment that remains historically high. The crunch could have been a factor in holding down April's job gains.
とてつもなく長くなりましたが、まずまずよく取りまとめられている印象です。続いて、いつもの米国雇用統計のグラフは下の通りです。上のパネルでは非農業部門雇用者数の前月差増減の推移とそのうちの民間部門を、さらに、下は失業率をプロットしています。いずれも季節調整済みの系列であり、影をつけた部分は景気後退期です。NBERでは今年2020年2月を米国景気の山と認定しています。ともかく、4月の雇用統計からやたらと大きな変動があって縦軸のスケールを変更したため、わけの判らないグラフになって、その前の動向が見えにくくなっています。少し見やすくしたんですが、それでもまだ判りにくさが残っています。

引用した記事の4パラめにもあるように、Bloombergによる市場の事前コンセンサスでは+995千人増と、+100万人近い雇用増が予想されていましたので、+266千人増はかなり物足りなお数字と受け止められています。他方で、失業率は今年2021年1月には6.3%まで低下した後、2月6.2%、3月6.0%、4月も6.1%と、着実に低下しているものの、やや下げ止まっている感もあります。マクロの雇用の改善が進んだところで、労働市場のミスマッチが生じている可能性があります。すなわち、リモートワークの普及などの構造的な変化が生じていることから、労働市場でもそういった人材の需要が高まる一方で、労働供給の方はそれほど短期には調整できない可能性もある、ということです。しかし、それでも、マクロの雇用の回復には、やはり、新型コロナウィルス感染症(COVID-19)のワクチン接種が進んでいる要因が大きいと考えるべきです。繰り返し、何度も緊急事態宣言を頻発している我が国とは大きく違います。GDP統計にも着実な米国経済の回復が現れており、1~3月期は前期比年率で+6.4%成長でした。我が国の1~3月期GDP統計速報1次QEはさ来週の5発18日に公表予定なもので、私も1次QE予想を取りまとめているところですが、ほとんどのシンクタンクがマイナス成長を予測しており、ワクチン接種と機動的な財政政策を展開して力強い景気回復を実現している米国バイデン政権との違いが大きくなっています。
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