年末年始休みに読んだ学術論文

先週土曜日1月4日の読書感想文のブログでは小説ばかり3冊ほど取り上げましたが、もちろん、この年末年始休みには、私も大学教授ですので、いくつか学術論文も読んでいます。4本ほど取り上げたいと思います。まず、私が読んだ順で各論文の引用情報は以下の通りです。

• Cohen, Jonathan, Andrew C. Johnston and Attila Lindner (2024) "Skill Depreciation during Unemployment: Evidence from Panel Data," forthcoming American Economic Journal
• Goldin, Claudia (2024) "Babies and the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Paper No.33311, National Beaurau fo Economic Research, December 2024
• Ruffini, Krista (2024) "Worker Earnings, Service Quality, and Firm Profitability: Evidence from Nursing Homes and Minimum Wage Reforms," Review of Economics and Statistics 106(6), November 2024, pp.1477-94
• Izumi, Yutaro, Daiji Kawaguchi, Sachiko Kuroda and Taiga Tsubota (2024) "Exemption and work environment," forthcoming Indutrial Relations, November 2024

次に、英文ながら、一気にAbstractを引用して並べると以下の通りです。

Skill Depreciation during Unemployment: Evidence from Panel Data
We examine the depreciation of skills among unemployed German workers using a panel of skill measures linked to administrative data. Both the reemployment hazard and reemployment earnings steadily decline with unemployment duration. Indicators of depression and loneliness also rise substantially. However, we find no decline in a wide range of cognitive and non-cognitive skills while workers remain unemployed. We find the same pattern in a panel of American workers. The results imply that skill depreciation in general human capital is unlikely to be a major explanation for observed duration dependence in reemployment outcomes.
Babies and the Macroeconomy
Fertility levels have greatly decreased in virtually every nation in the world, but the timing of the decline has differed even among developed countries. In Europe, Asia, and North America, total fertility rates of some nations dipped below the magic replacement figure of 2.1 as early as the 1970s. But in other nations, fertility rates remained substantial until the 1990s but plummeted subsequently. This paper addresses why some countries in Europe and Asia with moderate fertility levels in 1980s, have become the "lowest-low" nations today (total fertility rates of less than 1.3), whereas those that decreased earlier have not. Also addressed is why the crossover point for the two groups of nations was around the 1980s and 1990s. An important factor that distinguishes the two groups is their economic growth in the 1960s and 1970s. Countries with "lowest low" fertility rates today experienced rapid growth in GNP per capita after a long period of stagnation or decline. They were catapulted into modernity, but the beliefs, values, and traditions of their citizens changed more slowly. Thus, swift economic change may lead to both generational and gendered conflicts that result in a rapid decrease in the total fertility rate.
Worker Earnings, Service Quality, and Firm Profitability: Evidence from Nursing Homes and Minimum Wage Reforms
This paper examines whether higher earnings for frontline workers affects the quality of employees' output. I leverage increases in the statutory minimum wage, combined with worker, consumer, and firm outcomes in the nursing home sector. I find that higher minimum wages increase income and retention among low-wage employees and improve consumer outcomes, measured by fewer inspection violations; lower rates of adverse, preventable health conditions; and lower resident mortality. Firms maintain profitability by attracting consumers with a greater ability to pay and increasing prices for these individuals.
Exemption and work environment
The Labor Standards Act of Japan requires employers to compensate employees based on hours worked, but exemptions apply to specific occupations with agreements between employers and employees. We assess the impact of being exempted on hours worked, earnings, and the physical and mental health conditions of employees. We find that, on average, exempt workers work longer hours and earn more than nonexempt workers, without hurting their health status. We also find, however, that being exempted exacerbates health status when it is applied to employees who do not have discretion in how and when they work.

まず、最初の論文 "Skill Depreciation during Unemployment: Evidence from Panel Data" では、失業に伴う不利益をパネルデータ分析により明らかにしようと試みています。私の従来からの見方と違っているのは、失業期間中も認知的及び非認知的スキルの低下は見られない、という結論です。ただし、再雇用されないリスクと再雇用後の所得、さらに、うつ病と孤独指標は失業期間の長期化とともに悪化を示しています。私は雇用者が失業するとスキルの低下を招くので失業を避けるべきだと主張してきましたが、本論文ではドイツの例ながら私の見方を一部否定する結論が出ています。
2番目の論文 "Babies and the Macroeconomy" は、一昨年のノーベル経済学賞を受賞したゴルディン教授による出生率低下に関する分析です。急速な経済成長を経験した国のグループで出生率が低くなっている事実につき分析し、急激な成長や経済の変化が世代間や性別に応じた対立を引き起こし、出生率の急速な低下を招いた可能性を指摘しています。3番目の論文 "Worker Earnings, Service Quality, and Firm Profitability: Evidence from Nursing Homes and Minimum Wage Reforms" は、最前線で働くエッセンシャルワーカーなどの労働者の収入が法定最低賃金の上昇により引き上げられると、低賃金労働者の収入と定着率が向上し、健康状態の悪化を予防するなど、消費者としての成果を改善するとの分析結果を示しています。
最後の論文 "Exemption and work environment" は、日本人の研究者による日本の裁量労働制、すなわち、労働基準法の適用除外に関して、それが労働時間、収入、心身の健康に及ぼす影響を分析しています。(1) 目標や締切といった基本的業務内容の決定方法、(2) 業務内容や量の決定方法、(3) 進捗報告の頻度、(4) 業務実施方法や時間配分の決定方法、(5) 作業開始および終了時間の決定方法、の5つの基準として、自己決定の割合、すなわち、裁量が高い労働者に裁量労働制が適用されていると、適用されていない労働者に比べて週当たり労働時間が2時間長くなる一方で、年間ベースで収入が+7.8%高くなる、との結果を得ています。健康状態の悪化や仕事に対する満足度の低下も見られていません。ただし、5つの基準で見て、低い裁量しか持たない労働者には長時間労働が健康に悪影響を与え、加えて、仕事に対する満足度も低下することが明らかにされています。まあ、労働基準法の定期用除外になって裁量労働制が適用されると、労働時間が増加するのは確実だと私も思います。最後の論文から、その労働時間の分布のグラフ Figure 1 Distributions of weekly hours worked by discretionary work-hour system status を引用すると以下の通りです。ピンクの部分が労働基準法の適用除外=裁量労働制の適用された労働者の労働時間であり、緑色の部分はそうでない労働者の労働時間です。