2世紀に渡るイノベーションはどのようなスキルの労働を必要としたか?

全米経済調査会(NBER)から2世紀に渡るイノベーションはどのようなスキルの労働を必要としたかについての研究論文 "Technology and Labor Markets: Past, Present, and Future; Evidence from Two Centuries of Innovation" が明らかにされています。まず、論文の引用情報は以下の通りです。

• Liu, Huben, Dimitris Papanikolaou, Lawrence D.W. Schmidt and Bryan Seegmiller (2025) "Technology and Labor Markets: Past, Present, and Future; Evidence from Two Centuries of Innovation," NBER Working Paper No.34386, National Bureau of Economic Research, Oct. 2025

次に、NBERのサイトからABSTRACTを引用すると以下の通りです。

ABSTRACT
We use recent advances in natural language processing and large language models to construct novel measures of technology exposure for workers that span almost two centuries. Combining our measures with Census data on occupation employment, we show that technological progress over the 20th century has led to economically meaningful shifts in labor demand across occupations: it has consistently increased demand for occupations with higher education requirements, occupations that pay higher wages, and occupations with a greater fraction of female workers. Using these insights and a calibrated model, we then explore different scenarios for how advances in artificial intelligence (AI) are likely to impact employment trends in the medium run. The model predicts a reversal of past trends, with AI favoring occupations that are lower-educated, lower-paid, and more male-dominated.

大規模言語モデル(LLC)、要するに、大雑把にAIと近い処理能力を有する技術を用いて、労働が技術にどの程度エクスポージャーされているかを指標化し、職業場別雇用と組み合わせて、技術進歩が労働需要をいかに変化させたかを検証しています。その結果、以下の3タイプの職業への需要が高まったことを確認しています。

1. より高い教育要件が求められる職業 occupations with higher education requirements
2. より高い賃金を支払う職業 occupations that pay higher wages
3. 女性労働者の割合が高い職業 occupations with a greater fraction of female workers
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これらをグラフで実証しています。下のグラフは論文から Figure 4: Technology Exposure and Shifts in Labor Demand Across Occupations を引用しています。